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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayern Munich win with a probability of 56.35%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 23.1% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayern Munich win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.15%) and 1-3 (6.81%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 2-1 (5.83%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.8%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayern Munich would win this match.
| Result | ||
| St Pauli | Draw | Bayern Munich |
23.1% ( 0.29) | 20.56% ( 0.14) | 56.35% ( -0.43) |
| Both teams to score 64.92% ( -0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.54% ( -0.33) | 32.45% ( 0.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.9% ( -0.39) | 54.09% ( 0.39) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.44% ( 0.04) | 26.56% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.23% ( 0.05) | 61.76% ( -0.05) |
| Bayern Munich Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.4% ( -0.23) | 11.6% ( 0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 63.41% ( -0.49) | 36.59% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Pauli | Draw | Bayern Munich |
| 2-1 @ 5.83% ( 0.07) 1-0 @ 4.08% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 2.71% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.58% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 1.2% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.92% ( 0)Other @ 3% Total : 23.1% | 1-1 @ 8.8% ( 0.09) 2-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 3.08% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.56% | 1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0.01) 0-2 @ 7.15% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.81% ( -0.05)0-1 @ 6.64% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 5.13% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 4.51% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 3.67% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 2.76% ( -0.05)2-4 @ 2.43% ( -0.04)1-5 @ 1.58% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.19% ( -0.03)3-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)2-5 @ 1.05% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.89% Total : 56.35% |
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