SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 74.04%. A draw had a probability of 15.3% and a win for Qingdao Hainiu had a probability of 10.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.13%) and 3-0 (8.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.94%), while for a Qingdao Hainiu win it was 1-2 (3.17%). The actual scoreline of 6-0 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu |
74.04% ( 0.26) | 15.29% ( -0.14) | 10.67% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 55.55% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.73% ( 0.34) | 31.27% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 47.3% ( 0.4) | 52.7% ( -0.4) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.8% ( 0.13) | 7.19% ( -0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.87% ( 0.34) | 26.13% ( -0.34) |
| Qingdao Hainiu Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.86% ( 0.03) | 40.14% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.21% ( 0.02) | 76.78% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Qingdao Hainiu |
| 2-0 @ 10% ( -0.05) 2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 8.78% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 8.01% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 7.6% ( -0.09)4-0 @ 5.77% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 5.27% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 2.77% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)6-0 @ 1.33% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)6-1 @ 1.22% ( 0.03)Other @ 3.8% Total : 74.04% | 1-1 @ 6.94% ( -0.08) 2-2 @ 4.17% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.89% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.11% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.18% Total : 15.29% | 1-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 2.64% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.27% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.43% Total : 10.67% |
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