SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 48.58%. A win for Beijing Guoan had a probability of 26.5% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.44%) and 0-2 (8.5%). The likeliest Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 (7.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
26.5% ( -0.54) | 24.92% ( 0.18) | 48.58% ( 0.36) |
| Both teams to score 53.47% ( -1.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.79% ( -1.13) | 49.21% ( 1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.73% ( -1.03) | 71.27% ( 1.03) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.08% ( -1.02) | 32.92% ( 1.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.5% ( -1.16) | 69.5% ( 1.15) |
| Shanghai Shenhua Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.71% ( -0.31) | 20.29% ( 0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.35% ( -0.48) | 52.65% ( 0.48) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Shanghai Shenhua |
| 1-0 @ 7.42% ( 0.14) 2-1 @ 6.58% ( -0.12)2-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.44% ( -0.12)3-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.48% Total : 26.5% | 1-1 @ 11.83% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 6.68% ( 0.3)2-2 @ 5.25% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.03% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.91% | 0-1 @ 10.65% ( 0.39) 1-2 @ 9.44% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.5% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 5.02% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 4.52% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 2.79% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.8% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.74% Total : 48.57% |
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