SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ghana | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nigeria win with a probability of 35.66%. A win for Benin had a probability of 35.1% and a draw had a probability of 29.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nigeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.37%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Benin win was 1-0 (12.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.42%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Benin | Draw | Nigeria |
35.1% ( 0.2) | 29.24% ( 0.09) | 35.66% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 44.2% ( -0.24) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.36% ( -0.29) | 62.64% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.79% ( -0.21) | 82.21% ( 0.21) |
| Benin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.3% ( -0.02) | 33.7% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.64% ( -0.02) | 70.36% ( 0.02) |
| Nigeria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.67% ( -0.34) | 33.33% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.05% ( -0.38) | 69.95% ( 0.38) |
| Score Analysis |
| Benin | Draw | Nigeria |
| 1-0 @ 12.21% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 7.3% ( 0)2-0 @ 6.64% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 2.65% 3-0 @ 2.41% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.43% Total : 35.09% | 1-1 @ 13.42% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 11.23% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.57% Total : 29.23% | 0-1 @ 12.34% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( -0.06)0-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 2.7% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 2.48% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.51% Total : 35.66% |
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