SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Ghana | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 3 | Benin | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Madagascar win with a probability of 38.01%. A win for Benin had a probability of 33.24% and a draw had a probability of 28.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Madagascar win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.79%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Benin win was 0-1 (11.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Madagascar would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Madagascar | Draw | Benin |
38.01% ( 0.07) | 28.75% ( -0.45) | 33.24% ( 0.38) |
| Both teams to score 45.39% ( 1.3) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.89% ( 1.56) | 61.11% ( -1.56) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.92% ( 1.15) | 81.08% ( -1.15) |
| Madagascar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.95% ( 0.83) | 31.05% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.63% ( 0.96) | 67.37% ( -0.97) |
| Benin Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.83% ( 1.1) | 34.17% ( -1.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.14% ( 1.17) | 70.86% ( -1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Madagascar | Draw | Benin |
| 1-0 @ 12.4% ( -0.45) 2-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 7.26% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.04% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 2.83% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.63% ( 0.11)Other @ 3.06% Total : 38% | 1-1 @ 13.32% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 10.61% ( -0.63)2-2 @ 4.18% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.63% Total : 28.75% | 0-1 @ 11.39% ( -0.33) 1-2 @ 7.15% ( 0.17)0-2 @ 6.12% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.14)0-3 @ 2.19% ( 0.07)2-3 @ 1.5% ( 0.11)Other @ 2.32% Total : 33.23% |
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