Even though Birmingham have quickly developed a winning formula under Davies, they well and truly rode their luck against Charlton in round one and will face a serious step-up in quality here.
Blues should not be blown to smithereens by any stretch, but a place in the third-round draw surely belongs to the Cottagers.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fulham win with a probability of 40.86%. A win for Birmingham City had a probability of 34.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fulham win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.12%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Birmingham City win was 2-1 (7.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Fulham in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Fulham.
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