SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bolton Wanderers win with a probability of 60.82%. A draw had a probability of 20.5% and a win for Oxford United had a probability of 18.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.17%) and 1-0 (8.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.42%), while for a Oxford United win it was 1-2 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bolton Wanderers would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Oxford United |
60.82% ( -0.74) | 20.48% ( 0.4) | 18.7% ( 0.33) |
| Both teams to score 57.95% ( -0.84) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.61% ( -1.38) | 38.38% ( 1.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.33% ( -1.48) | 60.67% ( 1.48) |
| Bolton Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.77% ( -0.63) | 12.22% ( 0.62) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.08% ( -1.33) | 37.91% ( 1.33) |
| Oxford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.02% ( -0.48) | 33.97% ( 0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.34% ( -0.52) | 70.65% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bolton Wanderers | Draw | Oxford United |
| 2-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 9.17% ( 0.16)1-0 @ 8.73% ( 0.36)3-1 @ 6.94% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 6.43% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 3.75% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.65% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 3.38% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 1.97% ( -0.12)5-1 @ 1.53% ( -0.11)5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.08)Other @ 3.96% Total : 60.82% | 1-1 @ 9.42% ( 0.27) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.05)0-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.27)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.21% Total : 20.48% | 1-2 @ 5.09% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 2.42% ( 0.1)2-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.83% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 18.7% |
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