SM
| Current Group G Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Serbia | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Hungary | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Montenegro | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Lithuania | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 5 | Bulgaria | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Serbia win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Bulgaria had a probability of 34.24% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Serbia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest Bulgaria win was 1-0 (10.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Bulgaria | Draw | Serbia |
34.24% ( -9.69) | 27.4% ( 5.7) | 38.36% ( 4) |
| Both teams to score 49.49% ( -20.29) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.91% ( -26.25) | 56.08% ( 26.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.84% ( -26.17) | 77.16% ( 26.17) |
| Bulgaria Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.09% ( -16.41) | 30.91% ( 16.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.8% ( -24.7) | 67.2% ( 24.7) |
| Serbia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.63% ( -9.99) | 28.37% ( 9.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.88% ( -14.6) | 64.11% ( 14.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bulgaria | Draw | Serbia |
| 1-0 @ 10.29% ( 5.14) 2-1 @ 7.62% ( -0.8)2-0 @ 6.05% ( 1.08)3-1 @ 2.98% ( -2.44)3-0 @ 2.37% ( -0.83)3-2 @ 1.88% ( -2.71)Other @ 3.06% Total : 34.23% | 1-1 @ 12.97% ( 4.25) 0-0 @ 8.77% ( 6.1)2-2 @ 4.8% ( -2.33)Other @ 0.87% Total : 27.4% | 0-1 @ 11.04% ( 6.53) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( 0.79)0-2 @ 6.96% ( 3.14)1-3 @ 3.43% ( -0.74)0-3 @ 2.92% ( 0.76)2-3 @ 2.01% ( -2.01)1-4 @ 1.08% ( -0.68)0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.82% Total : 38.35% |
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