SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 38.22%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 34.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.91%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Burundi win was 1-0 (10.24%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Burundi | Draw | Malawi |
34.48% ( -0.33) | 27.31% ( -0.07) | 38.22% ( 0.4) |
| Both teams to score 49.81% ( 0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.31% ( 0.25) | 55.7% ( -0.25) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.16% ( 0.2) | 76.84% ( -0.2) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.45% ( -0.09) | 30.56% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.22% ( -0.1) | 66.79% ( 0.11) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.73% ( 0.36) | 28.27% ( -0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.02% ( 0.45) | 63.98% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burundi | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.12) 2-1 @ 7.67% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.07% ( -0.09)3-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.15% Total : 34.48% | 1-1 @ 12.93% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 8.64% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.85% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.89% Total : 27.3% | 0-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.17% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 6.89% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.06)2-3 @ 2.04% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 1.09% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.85% Total : 38.21% |
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