SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Algeria | 3 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Kenya | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kenya win with a probability of 47.46%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 27.16% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kenya win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.32%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Burundi win was 0-1 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.07%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Kenya | Draw | Burundi |
47.46% ( 0.26) | 25.38% ( -0.08) | 27.16% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 52.54% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.31% ( 0.24) | 50.69% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.41% ( 0.21) | 72.59% ( -0.2) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.63% ( 0.21) | 21.37% ( -0.21) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.65% ( 0.32) | 54.34% ( -0.32) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.81% ( -0.01) | 33.19% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.21% ( -0.01) | 69.79% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kenya | Draw | Burundi |
| 1-0 @ 10.94% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 9.32% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 8.45% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 4.34% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.85% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.43% Total : 47.46% | 1-1 @ 12.07% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 7.09% ( -0.07)2-2 @ 5.14% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.38% | 0-1 @ 7.82% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.66% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 4.31% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.89% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.44% Total : 27.16% |
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