SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Gambia | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Senegal win with a probability of 72.95%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 8.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Senegal win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (16.43%) and 3-0 (10.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (8.3%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (4.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Senegal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Senegal | Draw | Malawi |
72.95% ( -0.75) | 18.82% ( 0.22) | 8.22% ( 0.53) |
| Both teams to score 33.9% ( 1.52) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.33% ( 0.73) | 54.67% ( -0.73) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24% ( 0.6) | 75.99% ( -0.61) |
| Senegal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.33% ( -0) | 13.66% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.14% ( -0) | 40.86% ( 0) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 39.26% ( 1.76) | 60.74% ( -1.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 8.98% ( 0.85) | 91.02% ( -0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Senegal | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 16.51% ( -0.48) 2-0 @ 16.43% ( -0.48)3-0 @ 10.9% ( -0.32)2-1 @ 8.2% ( 0.25)3-1 @ 5.44% ( 0.16)4-0 @ 5.43% ( -0.16)4-1 @ 2.71% ( 0.08)5-0 @ 2.16% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.36% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.73% Total : 72.93% | 0-0 @ 8.3% ( -0.24) 1-1 @ 8.24% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.24% Total : 18.82% | 0-1 @ 4.14% ( 0.12) 1-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.18)0-2 @ 1.03% ( 0.09)Other @ 1% Total : 8.22% |
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