SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 64.01%. A draw had a probability of 23.5% and a win for Malawi had a probability of 12.44%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.75%) and 2-1 (8.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (10.64%), while for a Malawi win it was 0-1 (6.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Burkina Faso would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Burkina Faso | Draw | Malawi |
64.01% ( 0) | 23.55% ( 0) | 12.44% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 35.46% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.81% ( -0.02) | 61.19% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.86% ( -0.02) | 81.14% ( 0.02) |
| Burkina Faso Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.08% ( -0.01) | 18.91% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.59% ( -0.01) | 50.41% ( 0.01) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 43.73% ( -0.03) | 56.27% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 11.37% ( -0.02) | 88.62% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Burkina Faso | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 17.72% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 14.75% 2-1 @ 8.49% ( -0)3-0 @ 8.19% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.71% ( -0)4-0 @ 3.41% 4-1 @ 1.96% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.35% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.28% Total : 64% | 0-0 @ 10.64% ( 0.01) 1-1 @ 10.19% 2-2 @ 2.44% ( -0)Other @ 0.28% Total : 23.55% | 0-1 @ 6.12% 1-2 @ 2.93% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.76% ( -0)Other @ 1.63% Total : 12.44% |
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