SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 5 |
| 2 | Guinea | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Malawi | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Zimbabwe | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Madagascar | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Burundi | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Burundi win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Malawi | Draw | Burundi |
41.13% ( -0.32) | 26.56% ( -0.01) | 32.32% ( 0.32) |
| Both teams to score 51.68% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.89% ( 0.12) | 53.11% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.31% ( 0.1) | 74.69% ( -0.1) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.55% ( -0.11) | 25.46% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.72% ( -0.15) | 60.28% ( 0.15) |
| Burundi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.32% ( 0.28) | 30.68% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.07% ( 0.33) | 66.93% ( -0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Malawi | Draw | Burundi |
| 1-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.41% Total : 41.12% | 1-1 @ 12.62% 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.04)2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.55% | 0-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.06)0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.09% Total : 32.32% |
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