SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Buxton win with a probability of 46.76%. A win for Oxford City had a probability of 28.68% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Buxton win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.72%). The likeliest Oxford City win was 0-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Buxton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Buxton | Draw | Oxford City |
46.76% ( 1.03) | 24.56% ( -0.14) | 28.68% ( -0.9) |
| Both teams to score 56.3% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.74% ( 0.09) | 46.26% ( -0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.45% ( 0.08) | 68.55% ( -0.08) |
| Buxton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.13% ( 0.47) | 19.87% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.02% ( 0.77) | 51.98% ( -0.77) |
| Oxford City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.26% ( -0.59) | 29.74% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.2% ( -0.72) | 65.8% ( 0.72) |
| Score Analysis |
| Buxton | Draw | Oxford City |
| 1-0 @ 9.55% ( 0.1) 2-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.09)2-0 @ 7.72% ( 0.2)3-1 @ 5.04% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 4.16% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 2.04% ( 0.08)4-0 @ 1.68% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.94% Total : 46.76% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 5.91% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 7.02% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 4.35% ( -0.16)1-3 @ 2.84% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.1)Other @ 3.25% Total : 28.68% |
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