Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Oxford City win with a probability of 44.52%. A win for Alfreton Town had a probability of 30.71% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Oxford City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.16%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Alfreton Town win was 0-1 (7.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.66%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
Oxford City | Draw | Alfreton Town |
44.52% ( 6.11) | 24.78% ( -0.55) | 30.71% ( -5.56) |
Both teams to score 56.81% ( 0.25) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.85% ( 1.04) | 46.15% ( -1.04) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.55% ( 0.98) | 68.45% ( -0.98) |
Oxford City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.2% ( 3.41) | 20.8% ( -3.41) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.54% ( 5.09) | 53.45% ( -5.09) |
Alfreton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.72% ( -2.89) | 28.28% ( 2.89) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.01% ( -3.81) | 63.99% ( 3.81) |
Score Analysis |
Oxford City | Draw | Alfreton Town |
1-0 @ 9.24% ( 0.52) 2-1 @ 9.16% ( 0.68) 2-0 @ 7.25% ( 1.07) 3-1 @ 4.79% ( 0.79) 3-0 @ 3.8% ( 0.87) 3-2 @ 3.03% ( 0.28) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0.46) 4-0 @ 1.49% ( 0.45) 4-2 @ 1.19% ( 0.22) Other @ 2.69% Total : 44.52% | 1-1 @ 11.66% ( -0.29) 0-0 @ 5.88% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.17% Total : 24.77% | 0-1 @ 7.43% ( -1) 1-2 @ 7.37% ( -0.83) 0-2 @ 4.69% ( -1.09) 1-3 @ 3.1% ( -0.64) 2-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.22) 0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.67) 1-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.3) Other @ 2.73% Total : 30.71% |
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