Despite failing to win any of their last three away matches, we are expecting Derby to turn on the style here and record a potentially promotion-securing victory at the Abbey.
Cambridge's form has stuttered in recent weeks, and the visit of the second-placed Rams to the Abbey Stadium is not an ideal opportunity to get back to winning ways.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.76%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Cambridge United had a probability of 14.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (12.89%) and 1-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.5%), while for a Cambridge United win it was 1-0 (5.86%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 14.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Derby County in this match.
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