Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 38.11%. A win for CF Os Belenenses had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.1%) and 0-2 (6.96%). The likeliest CF Os Belenenses win was 1-0 (10.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gil Vicente would win this match.
-0.03) 
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