Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cittadella win with a probability of 51.34%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Sampdoria had a probability of 22.66%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cittadella win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.15%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for a Sampdoria win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
-0.25) 
0.1) 
