SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 41.22%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 30.22% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.14%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Corinthians | Draw | Cruzeiro |
41.22% ( 0.46) | 28.57% ( 0.48) | 30.22% ( -0.94) |
| Both teams to score 45.06% ( -1.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 38.88% ( -1.93) | 61.11% ( 1.93) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.92% ( -1.47) | 81.08% ( 1.47) |
| Corinthians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.83% ( -0.68) | 29.17% ( 0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.89% ( -0.84) | 65.11% ( 0.84) |
| Cruzeiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.62% ( -1.75) | 36.38% ( 1.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.83% ( -1.81) | 73.16% ( 1.81) |
| Score Analysis |
| Corinthians | Draw | Cruzeiro |
| 1-0 @ 13.07% ( 0.69) 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 8.05% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 3.31% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 1.69% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.05)4-0 @ 1.02% ( -0)Other @ 1.55% Total : 41.21% | 1-1 @ 13.22% ( 0.09) 0-0 @ 10.61% ( 0.74)2-2 @ 4.12% ( -0.26)Other @ 0.62% Total : 28.56% | 0-1 @ 10.73% ( 0.27) 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.28)0-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.25% ( -0.21)0-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.13)2-3 @ 1.39% ( -0.16)Other @ 1.91% Total : 30.22% |
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