Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 57.87%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 17.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.04%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.39%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.99%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
0.51) 
-0.19) 
