Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Leon win with a probability of 40.12%. A win for Cruz Azul had a probability of 33.85% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Leon win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (6.85%). The likeliest Cruz Azul win was 1-0 (8.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood.
0.01) 
-0.07) 
