Deportivo Pereira will be desperate to make the most of home advantage on Thursday, but we see the visitors having too much quality and attacking threat and going ahead in the tie before returning to Ecuador for the second leg next week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Pereira win with a probability of 37.05%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 35.28% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Pereira win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (6.74%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 0-1 (10.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Deportivo Pereira in this match.
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