A shot-shy Corinthians simply cannot buy a goal away from the comfort of their own stadium right now, and such frailties should no doubt be taken advantage of by Independiente, even with their first-choice goalkeeper missing.
The hosts can afford to focus all their efforts on the Copa Libertadores with nothing on the line in the league, and we can only envisage the Ecuadorian powerhouses strolling to the win that may or may not book them a spot in the knockout stages depending on results elsewhere.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente del Valle win with a probability of 55.41%. A draw had a probability of 24.4% and a win for Corinthians had a probability of 20.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente del Valle win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.71%) and 2-1 (9.58%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.54%), while for a Corinthians win it was 0-1 (6.96%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Independiente del Valle would win this match.
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