SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Honduras |
43.86% ( 0.1) | 26.33% ( 0.09) | 29.81% ( -0.19) |
| Both teams to score 51.32% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.93% ( -0.45) | 53.08% ( 0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.34% ( -0.38) | 74.66% ( 0.38) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.95% ( -0.15) | 24.05% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.67% ( -0.21) | 58.33% ( 0.21) |
| Honduras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.58% ( -0.37) | 32.42% ( 0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.06% ( -0.42) | 68.94% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Honduras |
| 1-0 @ 11.11% ( 0.15) 2-1 @ 8.92% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 4.24% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.04)4-1 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.34% ( 0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 43.86% | 1-1 @ 12.51% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 7.8% ( 0.14)2-2 @ 5.02% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.32% | 0-1 @ 8.78% ( 0.07) 1-2 @ 7.05% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 4.95% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.65% Total : 29.81% |
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