SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Honduras win with a probability of 84.86%. A draw had a probability of 11% and a win for Cuba had a probability of 4.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Honduras win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.74%) and 1-0 (10.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.13%), while for a Cuba win it was 0-1 (1.85%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Honduras would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Honduras | Draw | Cuba |
84.86% ( 0.55) | 10.96% ( -0.18) | 4.17% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 35.75% ( -2.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.19% ( -1.28) | 36.8% ( 1.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.02% ( -1.4) | 58.98% ( 1.4) |
| Honduras Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 93.78% ( -0.14) | 6.22% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 76.5% ( -0.38) | 23.49% ( 0.39) |
| Cuba Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 38.12% ( -2.48) | 61.88% ( 2.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 8.42% ( -1.24) | 91.58% ( 1.24) |
| Score Analysis |
| Honduras | Draw | Cuba |
| 2-0 @ 14.84% ( 0.69) 3-0 @ 13.74% ( 0.53)1-0 @ 10.69% ( 0.58)4-0 @ 9.54% ( 0.29)2-1 @ 7.13% ( -0.25)3-1 @ 6.6% ( -0.29)5-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.12)4-1 @ 4.58% ( -0.24)5-1 @ 2.54% ( -0.15)6-0 @ 2.45% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.58% ( -0.21)6-1 @ 1.18% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 1.1% ( -0.16)7-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.61% Total : 84.86% | 1-1 @ 5.13% ( -0.14) 0-0 @ 3.85% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 1.71% ( -0.21)Other @ 0.28% Total : 10.96% | 0-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 1.23% ( -0.14)Other @ 1.09% Total : 4.17% |
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