SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 47.17%. A draw had a probability of 29.6% and a win for Chile had a probability of 23.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.24%) and 2-1 (7.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.42%), while for a Chile win it was 0-1 (10.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Chile |
47.17% ( -0.38) | 29.64% ( 0.1) | 23.19% ( 0.28) |
| Both teams to score 38.17% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.55% ( -0.1) | 67.44% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.43% ( -0.06) | 85.56% ( 0.06) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.94% ( -0.25) | 29.06% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.02% ( -0.31) | 64.97% ( 0.3) |
| Chile Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.81% ( 0.23) | 46.19% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.13% ( 0.17) | 81.86% ( -0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Chile |
| 1-0 @ 16.58% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 10.24% ( -0.11)2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 4.22% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 3.26% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 1.26% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.02)Other @ 1.36% Total : 47.15% | 0-0 @ 13.42% ( 0.05) 1-1 @ 12.81% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.34% Total : 29.63% | 0-1 @ 10.36% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 4.95% ( 0.05)0-2 @ 4% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.03% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.57% Total : 23.18% |
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