SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Qarabag FK win with a probability of 39.91%. A win for Elfsborg had a probability of 37.1% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Qarabag FK win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.19%) and 0-2 (5.22%). The likeliest Elfsborg win was 2-1 (8.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Elfsborg would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Elfsborg | Draw | Qarabag FK |
37.1% ( 3.26) | 23% ( -0.28) | 39.91% ( -2.97) |
| Both teams to score 65.31% ( 1.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.13% ( 2.07) | 35.87% ( -2.06) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.05% ( 2.24) | 57.95% ( -2.23) |
| Elfsborg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.18% ( 2.6) | 19.82% ( -2.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.1% ( 4.04) | 51.9% ( -4.04) |
| Qarabag FK Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.46% ( -0.41) | 18.54% ( 0.41) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.21% ( -0.69) | 49.79% ( 0.69) |
| Score Analysis |
| Elfsborg | Draw | Qarabag FK |
| 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 5.95% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.27)3-1 @ 4.38% ( 0.51)3-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.39)3-0 @ 2.6% ( 0.33)4-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.33)4-2 @ 1.49% ( 0.26)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.2)Other @ 3.25% Total : 37.1% | 1-1 @ 10.02% ( -0.35) 2-2 @ 6.83% ( 0.21)0-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.39)3-3 @ 2.07% ( 0.19)Other @ 0.4% Total : 23% | 1-2 @ 8.45% ( -0.41) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0.75)0-2 @ 5.22% ( -0.71)1-3 @ 4.74% ( -0.3)2-3 @ 3.84% ( 0.07)0-3 @ 2.93% ( -0.44)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.15)2-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.2)Other @ 3.69% Total : 39.91% |
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