Lazio's poor form means while they may be slight favourites for this one, it could be a much closer outing than Sarri would prefer.
Hosts Empoli are in the midst of a rut though, and while two of their three wins this season came against Fiorentina and Napoli, this will be a tough task, especially with Caputo potentially out injured.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 47.93%. A win for Empoli had a probability of 26.67% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The likeliest Empoli win was 1-0 (7.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
-0.25) 
0.05) 
