Espanyol have avoided defeat in each of their last 17 matches, while they have not lost a home game against a fellow Segunda Division side since October.
With that in mind, we think that the hosts will produce another resolute display to hold Sporting to a draw and protect their slender first-leg advantage.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Espanyol win with a probability of 47.9%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Sporting Gijon had a probability of 24.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Espanyol win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (8.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.71%), while for a Sporting Gijon win it was 0-1 (9.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 10.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
0.45) 
-0.58) 
