SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Austria | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sweden | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Estonia | 5 | -14 | 1 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 5 | 12 | 13 |
| 2 | Austria | 5 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Sweden | 5 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Estonia | 5 | -14 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 45.6%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 28.36% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.09%) and 0-2 (8.26%). The likeliest Estonia win was 1-0 (8.43%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Azerbaijan |
28.36% ( 0.3) | 26.04% ( -0.15) | 45.6% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 51.35% ( 0.67) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.36% ( 0.77) | 52.64% ( -0.78) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.71% ( 0.66) | 74.29% ( -0.66) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.72% ( 0.65) | 33.28% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.1% ( 0.7) | 69.9% ( -0.7) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.97% ( 0.26) | 23.03% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.15% ( 0.38) | 56.85% ( -0.39) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 1-0 @ 8.43% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 6.81% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 4.64% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.5% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 1.83% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.44% Total : 28.36% | 1-1 @ 12.38% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 7.67% ( -0.24)2-2 @ 5% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.04% | 0-1 @ 11.25% ( -0.26) 1-2 @ 9.09% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 8.26% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 4.45% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 4.04% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.45% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.63% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 1.48% Other @ 2.93% Total : 45.59% |
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