SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Belgium | 4 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Austria | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 3 | Sweden | 4 | 5 | 6 |
| 4 | Estonia | 4 | -9 | 1 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 4 | -9 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 41.33%. A win for Jordan had a probability of 32.31% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Jordan win was 0-1 (9.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.53%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Azerbaijan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Jordan |
41.33% ( 0.33) | 26.36% ( 0.04) | 32.31% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 52.28% ( -0.23) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.66% ( -0.25) | 52.34% ( 0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.97% ( -0.21) | 74.03% ( 0.22) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75% ( 0.06) | 25% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.34% ( 0.08) | 59.66% ( -0.08) |
| Jordan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.7% ( -0.37) | 30.3% ( 0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.52% ( -0.45) | 66.48% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Jordan |
| 1-0 @ 10.5% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 8.69% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 4.02% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.36% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.4% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.52% Total : 41.33% | 1-1 @ 12.53% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.19% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.35% | 0-1 @ 9.05% ( -0) 1-2 @ 7.49% ( -0.07)0-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.98% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.07% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.18% Total : 32.31% |
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