SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Estonia | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 2 | -8 | 0 |
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 2 | Belgium | 1 | 3 | 3 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Estonia | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 2 | -8 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 41.81%. A win for Estonia had a probability of 30.44% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (7.95%). The likeliest Estonia win was 0-1 (10.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Estonia |
41.81% ( 0.62) | 27.75% ( -0.21) | 30.44% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 47.42% ( 0.43) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.8% ( 0.62) | 58.2% ( -0.61) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.15% ( 0.48) | 78.85% ( -0.48) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.56% ( 0.63) | 27.44% ( -0.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.07% ( 0.81) | 62.93% ( -0.8) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.35% ( 0.02) | 34.65% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.63% ( 0.02) | 71.37% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Azerbaijan | Draw | Estonia |
| 1-0 @ 12.29% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 8.43% ( 0.11)2-0 @ 7.95% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 3.63% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 3.43% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 1.93% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.17% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.11% ( 0.05)Other @ 1.88% Total : 41.81% | 1-1 @ 13.03% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 9.51% ( -0.22)2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.74% | 0-1 @ 10.07% ( -0.23) 1-2 @ 6.91% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.34% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.58% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.21% Total : 30.43% |
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