SM
| Current League B4 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Sweden | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Serbia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Norway | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovenia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Current League C3 Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Kazakhstan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | Azerbaijan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | Slovakia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sweden win with a probability of 55.04%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 20.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sweden win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.67%) and 2-1 (9.55%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (7.07%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sweden | Draw | Azerbaijan |
55.04% ( -0.35) | 24.56% ( 0.03) | 20.4% ( 0.31) |
| Both teams to score 47.66% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.56% ( 0.24) | 53.44% ( -0.24) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.03% ( 0.2) | 74.97% ( -0.21) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.66% ( -0.04) | 19.34% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.89% ( -0.07) | 51.11% ( 0.07) |
| Azerbaijan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.09% ( 0.48) | 40.91% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.52% ( 0.42) | 77.48% ( -0.43) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sweden | Draw | Azerbaijan |
| 1-0 @ 12.99% ( -0.15) 2-0 @ 10.67% ( -0.13)2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 5.85% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.23% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.4% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.34% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.15% ( -0)4-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.89% Total : 55.02% | 1-1 @ 11.61% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.91% ( -0.08)2-2 @ 4.27% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.76% Total : 24.55% | 0-1 @ 7.07% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 5.19% ( 0.08)0-2 @ 3.16% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 1.55% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.03)0-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.22% Total : 20.4% |
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