SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Belgium | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Sweden | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 4 | Estonia | 2 | -1 | 1 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 50.56%. A draw had a probability of 26.8% and a win for Estonia had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.34%) and 1-2 (8.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.42%), while for a Estonia win it was 1-0 (8.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Belgium |
22.6% ( -21.33) | 26.85% ( 5.14) | 50.56% ( 16.19) |
| Both teams to score 44.19% ( -25.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.54% ( -29.62) | 59.46% ( 29.62) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.18% ( -28.83) | 79.82% ( 28.83) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 57.91% ( -27.59) | 42.1% ( 27.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.48% ( -36.02) | 78.52% ( 36.03) |
| Belgium Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.32% ( -5.3) | 23.69% ( 5.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.2% ( -8.28) | 57.8% ( 8.28) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Belgium |
| 1-0 @ 8.63% ( 3.48) 2-1 @ 5.38% ( -3.04)2-0 @ 3.73% ( -1.24)3-1 @ 1.55% ( -3.87)3-2 @ 1.12% ( -3.47)3-0 @ 1.08% ( -2.12)Other @ 1.12% Total : 22.6% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( 3.7) 0-0 @ 9.97% ( 7.31)2-2 @ 3.87% ( -3.26)Other @ 0.58% Total : 26.84% | 0-1 @ 14.36% ( 9.85) 0-2 @ 10.34% ( 6.52)1-2 @ 8.95% ( 1.57)0-3 @ 4.97% ( 2.81)1-3 @ 4.3% ( 0.13)2-3 @ 1.86% ( -2.17)0-4 @ 1.79% ( 0.87)1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.22)Other @ 2.45% Total : 50.55% |
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