Casa Pia appear to have turned a corner in recent weeks in their survival bid, particularly in defence, and we fancy them to extend their impressive run with a victory and clean sheet against a struggling Estrela Amadora side.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estrela Amadora win with a probability of 47.84%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 26.49% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.28%) and 2-0 (8.74%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estrela Amadora would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.01) 
