SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 38.36%. A win for Ethiopia had a probability of 31.87% and a draw had a probability of 29.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.58%) and 1-2 (7.53%). The likeliest Ethiopia win was 1-0 (12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ethiopia | Draw | Guinea |
31.87% ( 0.02) | 29.77% ( -0.01) | 38.36% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 42.4% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.37% ( 0.04) | 64.63% ( -0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.37% ( 0.03) | 83.63% ( -0.03) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.94% ( 0.03) | 37.05% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.15% ( 0.03) | 73.84% ( -0.04) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.36% ( 0.02) | 32.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.81% ( 0.02) | 69.18% ( -0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ethiopia | Draw | Guinea |
| 1-0 @ 12% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 6.67% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.96% ( 0)3-1 @ 2.21% ( 0)3-0 @ 1.97% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.24% ( 0)Other @ 1.81% Total : 31.86% | 1-1 @ 13.44% 0-0 @ 12.09% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.49% Total : 29.76% | 0-1 @ 13.54% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0)1-2 @ 7.53% ( 0)0-3 @ 2.83% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.81% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.4% ( 0)Other @ 2.68% Total : 38.36% |
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