SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Senegal | 3 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Cameroon | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Guinea | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Gambia | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Cameroon | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 3 | Cape Verde | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Ethiopia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guinea win with a probability of 63.7%. A draw had a probability of 23.2% and a win for Ethiopia had a probability of 13.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.21%) and 2-1 (8.81%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.33%), while for a Ethiopia win it was 0-1 (6.06%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Guinea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Guinea | Draw | Ethiopia |
63.7% ( 0.2) | 23.19% ( -0.11) | 13.1% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 37.78% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.03% ( 0.23) | 58.97% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.55% ( 0.17) | 79.44% ( -0.18) |
| Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.81% ( 0.16) | 18.19% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.81% ( 0.27) | 49.18% ( -0.27) |
| Ethiopia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.18% ( 0.01) | 53.82% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.84% ( 0) | 87.16% ( -0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Guinea | Draw | Ethiopia |
| 1-0 @ 16.68% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 14.21% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.81% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 8.08% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 5.01% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.44% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.55% ( 0.01)5-0 @ 1.17% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.61% Total : 63.69% | 1-1 @ 10.33% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 9.79% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 2.73% ( 0)Other @ 0.34% Total : 23.19% | 0-1 @ 6.06% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.2% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.96% Total : 13.1% |
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