Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 56.14%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for Boca Juniors had a probability of 18.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.84%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.69%), while for a Boca Juniors win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
0.01) 
-0.27) 
