SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.69%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for San Lorenzo had a probability of 16.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.94%) and 2-1 (8.02%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (13.41%), while for a San Lorenzo win it was 0-1 (8.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Boca Juniors | Draw | San Lorenzo |
55.69% ( -0.19) | 27.7% ( 0.06) | 16.61% ( 0.13) |
| Both teams to score 34.66% ( 0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 32.56% ( -0.02) | 67.44% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 14.44% ( -0.01) | 85.56% ( 0.01) |
| Boca Juniors Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.06% ( -0.1) | 24.93% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.43% ( -0.13) | 59.56% ( 0.13) |
| San Lorenzo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.18% ( 0.17) | 53.82% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.83% ( 0.1) | 87.16% ( -0.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Boca Juniors | Draw | San Lorenzo |
| 1-0 @ 18.63% ( -0.04) 2-0 @ 12.94% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0)3-0 @ 5.99% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 3.71% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.08% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.29% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 1.86% Total : 55.68% | 0-0 @ 13.41% 1-1 @ 11.54% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 2.48% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.25% Total : 27.69% | 0-1 @ 8.31% ( 0.05) 1-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.58% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.14% Total : 16.61% |
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