While the draw last week would have been a welcome point for Fluminense following a torrid run of results, they were far from convincing in the match and did not do enough to suggest a complete turnaround in form is to be expected right away.
Fortaleza have been excellent at home so far this season and are on a five-match winning streak in all competitions. We feel they will add to that record with another victory in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 55.03%. A draw had a probability of 24.2% and a win for Fluminense had a probability of 20.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 2-1 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.49%), while for a Fluminense win it was 0-1 (6.84%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fortaleza in this match.
-1.95) 
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