Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 52.62%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Fortaleza had a probability of 22.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.16%) and 2-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.93%), while for a Fortaleza win it was 0-1 (7.56%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.
1.59) 
-0.15) 
