SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortuna Sittard win with a probability of 52.11%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 25.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortuna Sittard win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.29%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 1-2 (6.42%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.31%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Fortuna Sittard would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
52.11% ( 0.29) | 22.56% ( -0.18) | 25.33% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 60.26% ( 0.53) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.27% ( 0.76) | 39.73% ( -0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.92% ( 0.78) | 62.08% ( -0.78) |
| Fortuna Sittard Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.64% ( 0.37) | 15.36% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.86% ( 0.69) | 44.14% ( -0.69) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.2% ( 0.32) | 28.81% ( -0.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.35% ( 0.4) | 64.66% ( -0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Fortuna Sittard | Draw | SBV Excelsior |
| 2-1 @ 9.66% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.29% ( -0.19)2-0 @ 7.76% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 6.03% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 4.85% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 3.76% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 2.83% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 2.27% ( 0.04)4-2 @ 1.76% ( 0.06)5-1 @ 1.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.84% Total : 52.11% | 1-1 @ 10.31% ( -0.14) 2-2 @ 6.01% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.25% Total : 22.56% | 1-2 @ 6.42% ( -0.03) 0-1 @ 5.51% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 3.43% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.4% Total : 25.33% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
