SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 8 | 26 | 22 |
| 2 | Netherlands | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Greece | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 8 | -1 | 6 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 8 | -41 | 0 |
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greece win with a probability of 72.66%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Kazakhstan had a probability of 9.61%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greece win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.93%) and 3-0 (10.22%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.35%), while for a Kazakhstan win it was 0-1 (3.84%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Greece would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Greece | Draw | Kazakhstan |
72.66% ( 0.72) | 17.73% ( -0.32) | 9.61% ( -0.4) |
| Both teams to score 42.19% ( -0.49) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.62% ( 0.21) | 46.38% ( -0.21) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.34% ( 0.2) | 68.67% ( -0.2) |
| Greece Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.67% ( 0.25) | 11.33% ( -0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64% ( 0.55) | 36% ( -0.55) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 47.58% ( -0.69) | 52.42% ( 0.69) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 13.72% ( -0.45) | 86.28% ( 0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| Greece | Draw | Kazakhstan |
| 2-0 @ 14.08% ( 0.16) 1-0 @ 12.93% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 10.22% ( 0.22)2-1 @ 9.1% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 6.6% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.57% ( 0.18)4-1 @ 3.6% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 2.43% ( 0.1)3-2 @ 2.13% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 1.57% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.27% Total : 72.65% | 1-1 @ 8.35% ( -0.16) 0-0 @ 5.94% ( -0.05)2-2 @ 2.94% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.5% Total : 17.73% | 0-1 @ 3.84% ( -0.11) 1-2 @ 2.7% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 1.24% ( -0.06)Other @ 1.84% Total : 9.62% |
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