SM
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| Current Group B Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | France | 3 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Greece | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 3 | Netherlands | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Republic of Ireland | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 5 | Gibraltar | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a France win with a probability of 43.93%. A win for Greece had a probability of 34.36% and a draw had a probability of 21.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a France win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.42%) and 1-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Greece win was 1-2 (7.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.72%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that France would win this match.
| Result | ||
| France | Draw | Greece |
43.93% ( -8.04) | 21.71% ( -4.92) | 34.36% ( 12.95) |
| Both teams to score 69.78% ( 26.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 70.16% ( 29.88) | 29.83% ( -29.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 49.01% ( 29.03) | 50.99% ( -29.03) |
| France Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.5% ( 8.67) | 14.5% ( -8.67) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.5% ( 14.55) | 42.49% ( -14.55) |
| Greece Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.61% ( 25.07) | 18.38% ( -25.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.48% ( 30.15) | 49.52% ( -30.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| France | Draw | Greece |
| 2-1 @ 8.42% ( -0.56) 3-1 @ 5.42% ( 1.04)1-0 @ 5.15% ( -9.57)2-0 @ 4.97% ( -5.79)3-2 @ 4.59% ( 2.77)3-0 @ 3.2% ( -2.05)4-1 @ 2.62% ( 1.02)4-2 @ 2.22% ( 1.55)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.38)4-3 @ 1.25% ( 1.07)5-1 @ 1.01% ( 0.54)Other @ 3.55% Total : 43.93% | 1-1 @ 8.72% ( -3.55) 2-2 @ 7.13% ( 3.39)0-0 @ 2.66% ( -7.4)3-3 @ 2.59% ( 2.09)Other @ 0.61% Total : 21.71% | 1-2 @ 7.38% ( 2.27) 0-1 @ 4.51% ( -3.88)1-3 @ 4.17% ( 2.75)2-3 @ 4.03% ( 2.99)0-2 @ 3.82% ( 0.33)0-3 @ 2.16% ( 1.19)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 1.47)2-4 @ 1.71% ( 1.49)3-4 @ 1.1% ( 0.99)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.71)Other @ 2.81% Total : 34.36% |
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