SM
| Current Group H Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Slovenia | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Denmark | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Finland | 10 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | Kazakhstan | 10 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Northern Ireland | 10 | -4 | 9 |
| 6 | San Marino | 10 | -28 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kazakhstan win with a probability of 43.71%. A win for Turkmenistan had a probability of 29.41% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kazakhstan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Turkmenistan win was 0-1 (9.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Kazakhstan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Turkmenistan |
43.71% ( 0.01) | 26.88% ( -0) | 29.41% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.46% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.63% ( 0) | 55.37% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.42% ( 0) | 76.58% ( 0) |
| Kazakhstan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.85% ( 0.01) | 25.15% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.13% ( 0.01) | 59.87% ( -0) |
| Turkmenistan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.08% ( -0.01) | 33.92% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.41% ( -0.01) | 70.59% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Kazakhstan | Draw | Turkmenistan |
| 1-0 @ 11.77% 2-1 @ 8.79% ( 0)2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.04% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.74% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.19% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.4% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.29% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 43.7% | 1-1 @ 12.73% 0-0 @ 8.53% 2-2 @ 4.75% ( -0)Other @ 0.87% Total : 26.88% | 0-1 @ 9.22% ( -0) 1-2 @ 6.88% ( -0)0-2 @ 4.99% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.48% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.8% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)Other @ 2.33% Total : 29.41% |
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