Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 58.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Criciuma had a probability of 18.67%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (9.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.06%), while for a Criciuma win it was 0-1 (6.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4.9% likelihood.
2.76) 
-0.86) 
