Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Mineiro win with a probability of 41.35%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 28.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.16%) and 0-2 (8.08%). The likeliest Gremio win was 1-0 (10.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Mineiro would win this match.
-0.28) 
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