SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 40.82%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 36.38% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.06%) and 2-0 (5.24%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hamburger SV | Draw | St Pauli |
40.82% ( 0.29) | 22.8% ( 0.23) | 36.38% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 65.99% ( -0.97) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.05% ( -1.23) | 34.95% ( 1.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.07% ( -1.39) | 56.93% ( 1.39) |
| Hamburger SV Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.24% ( -0.39) | 17.76% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 51.54% ( -0.68) | 48.45% ( 0.68) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.24% ( -0.79) | 19.75% ( 0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.21% ( -1.3) | 51.79% ( 1.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hamburger SV | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.11) 1-0 @ 6.06% ( 0.3)2-0 @ 5.24% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.9% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.97% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.07)4-1 @ 2.12% ( -0.03)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.3% ( 0.02)4-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.06)Other @ 3.08% Total : 40.82% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 6.89% ( -0.09)0-0 @ 3.51% ( 0.22)3-3 @ 2.15% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.42% Total : 22.8% | 1-2 @ 7.97% ( 0) 0-1 @ 5.69% ( 0.21)0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 4.31% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 3.73% ( -0.14)0-3 @ 2.49% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 1.75% ( -0.09)2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.1)0-4 @ 1.01% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.3% Total : 36.38% |
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