SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hamburger SV win with a probability of 55.87%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 23.17% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hamburger SV win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.45%) and 1-0 (7.12%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (5.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Hamburger SV would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Hamburger SV | Draw | St Pauli |
55.87% ( 3.16) | 20.96% ( -0.66) | 23.17% ( -2.5) |
| Both teams to score 63.48% ( -0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 65.64% ( 0.55) | 34.36% ( -0.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 43.73% ( 0.61) | 56.27% ( -0.61) |
| Hamburger SV Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.65% ( 1.12) | 12.35% ( -1.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.82% ( 2.3) | 38.18% ( -2.3) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.43% ( -1.59) | 27.57% ( 1.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.91% ( -2.09) | 63.09% ( 2.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Hamburger SV | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.12) 2-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.41)1-0 @ 7.12% ( 0.1)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.36)3-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.49)3-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 3.5% ( 0.33)4-0 @ 2.72% ( 0.36)4-2 @ 2.25% ( 0.12)5-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.19)5-0 @ 1.14% ( 0.19)4-3 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.09)Other @ 2.54% Total : 55.87% | 1-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.28) 2-2 @ 6.18% ( -0.21)0-0 @ 3.41% ( -0.1)3-3 @ 1.85% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.35% Total : 20.96% | 1-2 @ 5.91% ( -0.46) 0-1 @ 4.39% ( -0.33)0-2 @ 2.83% ( -0.35)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 2.54% ( -0.32)0-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.21)Other @ 3.63% Total : 23.17% |
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