Excelsior will be buoyed by their unbeaten start to the new season, and we think that they will continue their impressive run against a Heracles side that they have beaten in three consecutive head-to-head meetings.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Heracles win with a probability of 59.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.6% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 18.98%.
The most likely scoreline for a Heracles win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.95%) and 2-0 (9.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.14%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Heracles would win this match.
0.89) 
-0.37) 
